Tesla Global News #24

Tesla’s sales struggles dominated headlines this week, with new data and analyst revisions painting a grim picture for 2025. On March 12, U.S. registration figures revealed an 11% dip in Tesla vehicle registrations for January, signaling weakening demand in its home market—compounded by a reported 1% sales drop globally in 2024, the first annual decline in 12 years.

Analysts from Evercore ISI and UBS slashed their 2025 delivery forecasts to 1.75 million and 1.7 million units, respectively, down from earlier estimates of 1.875 million, with some warning numbers could fall below 1.7 million. Brinkman and team at Yahoo Finance projected an even bleaker first-quarter estimate of 355,000 vehicles, an 8% year-over-year drop.

This comes amid a broader narrative of “brand degradation,” with a Morgan Stanley survey indicating most investors believe Musk’s high-profile political activities are hurting Tesla’s image. Posts on X and media reports highlighted consumer backlash, including protests at Tesla dealerships, linked to Musk’s cost-cutting role in the Trump administration.

Despite a bright spot—Model 3 registrations jumping 19% in January with the updated model—analysts argue Tesla’s premium valuation (trading at a forward P/E ratio of 65) is increasingly disconnected from its performance as a traditional automaker.

Tesla’s stock hit a critical low this week, plunging 15% in a single day on March 10—its worst drop since 2020—before partially recovering. By March 12, shares had fallen below the 200-week moving average, a key technical indicator, and were trading at roughly $220, erasing all post-election gains and marking a 50% decline from the December 2024 peak of $480.

This seven-week losing streak, the longest since Elon Musk began leading DOGE, coincided with broader market unrest fueled by Trump’s tariff threats and economic uncertainty. Forbes reported that Tesla’s market cap had shed over $800 billion since December, with Monday’s sell-off triggered by slashed delivery forecasts and recession fears.

Musk addressed the slump in a Fox Business interview on March 10, admitting he was running his businesses “with great difficulty” while committing to another year in the Trump administration. Despite the March 12 rally, Tesla closed the week on a sour note, down nearly 5% on March 13 as reported by Yahoo Finance, with analysts like Ross Gerber doubling down on predictions of a continued crash in 2025.

The stock’s volatility has left investors grappling with whether Tesla’s future lies in its automotive core or Musk’s broader vision of AI and autonomy.

This week, China’s electric vehicle market erupted into a fierce price war, with Xiaomi and BYD leading the charge against Tesla’s dominance. On March 11, 2025, Xiaomi announced a jaw-dropping promotion: “two SU7 Ultras for the price of one Tesla Model Y,” slashing the effective price of its premium EV to under $18,000 per unit when bundled.

Meanwhile, BYD rolled out discounts of up to 20% on its popular Han EV and Seal models, bringing prices as low as $25,000—half the cost of Tesla’s comparable offerings. Industry analysts reported on March 12 that these moves have driven Tesla’s market share in China, its second-largest market, to a record low of 8% in Q1 2025 projections, down from 14% in 2024.

The New York Times noted that Chinese consumers are flocking to local brands for their superior tech—think 400-mile ranges and advanced driver-assist systems—at bargain prices.

With Tesla already reporting a 1% global sales dip in 2024, this escalation could force Musk to rethink pricing strategies or risk losing ground in the world’s biggest EV market.

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